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«Elections in Brazil: Lula on his Way to a Second Term Bruno Ayllón and Víctor García Guerrero ∗ Theme: Brazil’s incumbent President, Luis ...»

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Given a more than likely second term for Lula, what is now being debated in Brazil is the outlook for 2010. The incumbent president will not run again but will support the candidacy of someone close to him to continue his work. For now, the front runners appear to be the former mayor of São Paulo, Marta Suplicy, the head of the Chief-ofstaff’s office (Casa Civil), Dilma Roussef, Senator Aloízio Mercadante, the Minister of Institutional Relations, Tarso Genro, and the former Minister of National Integration and candidate in 2002, Ciro Gomes.

If Alckmin is finally defeated, this would also pave the way for the likely governor of São Paulo, José Serra, and the governor of Minais Gerais, Aécio Neves. Both could win in the first round, which would strengthen them both politically and lead them toward an inevitable conflict of ambitions within the party. Without doubt, the discussions on who will succeed Lula in 2010 will be a major issue in his second term. Beyond this particular debate, the background to any political discussion will be the challenges of achieving sustainable development in the country, redistributing wealth and working for the social inclusion of millions of citizens.

Bruno Ayllón MEC post-doctoral researcher at the University of São Paulo, Brazil Víctor García Guerrero Master in Mass Communications, University of Leicester, and Brazil correspondent of Radio Nacional and Radio Exterior de España

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